Perfectly Posh is a multi-level marketing (MLM) company specializing in beauty and skincare products designed for women.  Due to rapid growth their supply chain was experiencing difficulties with keeping products in stock and/or overstocking products.  Without advanced enterprise resource planning (ERP) software and accurate forecasting models it was difficult to determine when products would stock out or just how much excess inventory there was.  Using commonly standard software and a forecasting model with relativization, documents were created to provide insight into these key areas

Due to rapid growth of the business, forecasting products based on historical sales data was difficult.  Even with a long product history the sales numbers became increasingly non-useful because knowing how many units sold in January two years ago when the company did 200k dollars in revenue is not relatable to today when the company will do 5 million dollars in revenue.  In order to solve this issue a top line forecast was established for the company using the Holt-Winters model then applied down to individual products using a run rate model.

After a new forecasting model was implemented the numbers were input to an Excel document along with information about product inventories and purchase orders.  Formulas were created to provide concise and easy to understand details about all the products including stock out dates, available inventory, expected excess, receipt dates, etc…  This permitted users to quickly locate the information they are looking for and make informed data driven decisions.